What we know and don't know about the Philippine 2013 election results

The May 2013 produced both winners and losers among the candidates and voters. Yes, we won, and lost as well.

What we know are that the 12 new senators, members of the House of Representatives and party-lists, and local government officials have been proclaimed. There are interesting results that we will discuss briefly here.




1) Profile of the winners: A neophyte and woman, Senator Grace Poe, surprisingly took the top spot in the magic 12. She was one of the "independent" candidates (Chiz Escudero was the other one) adopted by Team PNoy in the campaign. She is also one of the four women who won seats in the Senate. Half of the seats were regained by the reelectionists. Among the six neophytes who won, only one is a lawyer. Among the twelve new senators, only one hails from Mindanao. Out of the 24 seats, we will have Estrada-Ejercito and Cayetano siblings. We will not miss an Angara and Villar. Fortunately, we prevented a father and son tandem in the senate.

2) Vote of religious groups - real or myth?: There have been debates and analyses on this topic. Because of the existence of collective identity, shared values, and strong identification with certain religious groups, YES, there exists a religious vote, be it Catholic, Muslim, INC, JIL, El Shaddai, Queboloy's group, etcetera. ( I will write further on this topic in the next blog entry on Catholic Vote). I argue that it is not the belief that shapes the political decision or preference, rather it is the perception of "threat" to one's in-group. As shown in the election results, these religious votes were not a guarantee that chosen candidates would win, but they affected the ranking of winners. For example, Chiz Escudero and Koko Pimentel who won were not endorsed by the INC, but their ranking of #4 and #8 respectively would have been higher had INC included them in its preferred slate.

3) Bailiwicks are slowly thinning out. The power of media, particularly social media, is breaking the barriers and punching holes in the walls of strong ethno-linguistic identification of peoples. Senators Grace Poe demonstrated this in 11 out of 15 regions.

4) Independent candidates can win in a national election. I think, even without the inclusion in the Team PNoy, Senators Grace Poe and Chiz Escudero would still win senate seats. However, in most of their campaign sorties, they organized their own schedules and, from time to time, synchronized their schedules with Team PNoy's. Aside from the strong showing of the two "independents," Ed Hagedorn's 18th finish with over 8 million votes, ahead of traditional politicians with political parties, shows this big possibility in what appears to be an emerging Philippine political reality.

5) Youthfulness wins big. Agedness loses. Nine (9) out of the 12 winners in the senatorial election are in the 40s. Veteran politician (e.g. Maceda, 78) and former presidential candidates such as Gordon (67), Madrigal (55), and Villanueva (66), lost. This election also put to office the youngest governor in the Philippine history at 23 years old. (This will be a topic soon in my Bicolano blog.)

6) There is something with the Bicolanos and Cebuanos who voted 10-2 in favor of Team PNoy and put Hontiveros in the magic 12. Remember that these were the same groups of people who gave Cory-Doy ticket in the 1986 snap election its greatest lead in actual votes and percentage votes.

7) It's all in the family names. Seven winners carry these family names. Poe, Cayetano, Binay, Angara, Pimentel, Villar, and Ejercito, these are the names that sound familiar, but they are not the ones we generally know. The winners are the daughters, sons, and wife of popular personalities in the Philippines.

And there are many things we do not know yet about the highlights and impacts of the 2013 senatorial and local election.

An Open Letter to Sen. Francis "Chiz" Escudero

Source: http://www.newsflash.org

Dear Chiz,

You are up for reelection. You rank highly in poll opinions. You will win your second term as a senator.

These are all we know.

What we know too is that political parties are now positioning themselves for the 2013 election and beyond.

I hope, I really do that you take into account the electoral lessons of the past and political realities before making any decisions whether or not to get involved with the established political parties.

First, there are no more two major and powerhouse political parties in the Philippines (unlike in the US). The weakening of Nacionalista and Liberal parties in the past decades saw the emergence of personality-based parties that gained massive support and almost won elections. Illustrating this, Miriam Santiago and Raul Roco came to my mind.

Second, our democratic and political system allows the rise of political parties from scratch to mainstream sphere with the leadership of a personality. Remember that Filipinos do not vote on issues, they vote on persons. Leaders build their characters, and these are what Filipino voters see and believe that the characters will stand up for them on issues that matter to their lives.

Third, there is a strong aversion for grandstanding ("epal") on media by politicians. Filipino voters know better if politicians do grandstand. Politicians do talk a lot, but they do no say anything. People could not connect with what they say.

Fourth, Filipino voters are young people. Although people remember, they do selectively. In the 1990s, a Marcos could not possibly win a national election. Voters then still remembered the experiences under Martial Law. In 2010, a Marcos came to national scene by winning a seat in the Senate. My father (May God bless his soul) would have been appalled. What the youth do remember now is GMA. And the name herself is enough to scare votes. Believe me, there is a youth vote.

Fifth, preparations are essential in election. Ironically, Filipinos have no love for early birds. In fact, those birds will be the first to be shot down. Remember Mitra in 1992, Roco in 2004, Villar in 2010. FPJ burst into the presidential scene just in time, but was robbed of the victory. Noynoy was an accidental candidate that defied timing.

Sixth, performance is a gift that people expect to get from you. Give a gift that people deserve. And people will reward you for that.

Seventh, smile is a charm; but please do not smile a lot. People take you seriously, and by smiling a lot, you take things lightly. Our national problems such as poverty, corruption, crimes, and conflicts, are not to be taken lightly. People want a strong leader. This is the reason why Lacson would always be able to garner at least 3-4 million votes.

Eight, be independent. Yes, people forgive "utang na loob"(debt of gratitude). But politicians and government officials are not expected to forgive this kind of debt. People despise politicians and government officials who make obvious decisions favoring someone for the sake of this "utang na loob." Please, do not put yourself into this situation. Be independent and pay your debt of gratitude to the people, and not to specific people.

Chiz, there are people who believe in you not because of what you can do for them, but what you represent them - hope.

Faithfully yours,

Chescudero Quita